Intel Corporation has been around a lot longer than the personal computer days, and over the past 30 plus years its stock has done very well. In fact, long before Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Dell Computers (DELL) arrived on the scene, Intel had already earned some very nice returns for its shareholders. Since 1975, Intel’s stock (INTC) has had 23 years of positive returns and 9 years of negative returns. During that time frame, 4 years were over 100% return with 1975 being the best year with a return of 222%. On the other side of the spectrum, 2002 was Intel’s worst performing year, with a shareholder’s loss of over 50%, excluding any dividends received.
If you had invested $1,000 in Intel Corporation at the beginning of 1975, that $1,000 would grown to over $486,000 today without even factoring in any dividends paid. The growth of Intel has led to 11 stock splits, all of which occurred before 2001. In fact, since the turn of the century, Intel’s stock has produced a negative return for 4 of the 7 years. Will this trend continue or will Intel regain its “glory days” once again? I am not a stock forecaster, but over time things tend to even themselves out. So the question becomes, is Intel’s stock due for more lackluster years because of its phenomenal early growth, or should the last 7 years be followed by some very good years to even things out. As with many things in the stock market, it depends on what time frame you are using as a reference.
Regardless, I believe much can be learned from the historical analysis of stocks. It will not predict future returns, but it can serve as a reference point of knowledge and experience. How you choose to apply that knowledge and experience is up to you.